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Ivermectin study #53 of 90
1/9 Early treatment study
Kirti et al., medRxiv, doi:10.1101/2021.01.05.21249310 (Preprint)
Ivermectin as a potential treatment for mild to moderate COVID-19: A double blind randomized placebo-controlled trial
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RCT with 112 mild and moderate COVID-19 patients in India, showing lower mortality, ventilation, and ICU admission, although not statistically significant due to the small number of events. There was no mortality in the treatment arm (55 patients) versus 7% (4 of 57) in the control arm. The PCR result is subject to confounding by biased loss of followup, with 23 lost in the treatment group and 13 in the control group, and 8 more people in the treatment group discharged before day 6.

Kirti et al., 1/9/2021, Double Blind Randomized Controlled Trial, India, South Asia, preprint, 11 authors, dosage 12mg days 1, 2.
risk of death, 88.7% lower, RR 0.11, p = 0.12, treatment 0 of 55 (0.0%), control 4 of 57 (7.0%), continuity correction due to zero event (with reciprocal of the contrasting arm).
risk of mechanical ventilation, 79.3% lower, RR 0.21, p = 0.09, treatment 1 of 55 (1.8%), control 5 of 57 (8.8%).
risk of ICU admission, 13.6% lower, RR 0.86, p = 0.80, treatment 5 of 55 (9.1%), control 6 of 57 (10.5%).
risk of no virological cure, 11.6% higher, RR 1.12, p = 0.35, treatment 42 of 55 (76.4%), control 39 of 57 (68.4%).

Effect extraction follows pre-specified rules prioritizing more serious outcomes. For an individual study the most serious outcome may have a smaller number of events and lower statistical signficance, however this provides the strongest evidence for the most serious outcomes when combining the results of many trials.
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